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Expected loss meaning

What does Expected loss mean?
Expected loss describes the average credit loss a lender or investor expects from borrower default on a loan or portfolio over a stated time horizon. In practice, it is commonly modelled as probability of default × loss given default × exposure at default (often with discounting), and used in lending, securitisation and risk transfer documents to inform pricing, covenants, triggers and reserve sizing. The expression is widely used rather than a single statutory definition. However, prudential rules define it for specific purposes: under the UK Capital Requirements Regulation (UK CRR) and the EU CRR (relevant in Ireland), institutions using the IRB approach calculate expected loss amounts using PD, LGD and EAD for regulatory capital. In financial reporting, IFRS 9 refers instead to expected credit losses for impairment, which are related but not identical. Across England and Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Ireland, usage is broadly consistent. Parties should check any contractual definition in transaction documents and the applicable regulatory or accounting framework, as these determine the time horizon (for example 12‑month or lifetime), treatment of recoveries and discounting, and whether portfolio‑level or exposure‑level calculations apply.
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NEWS
Aon survey: Only 2% of UK DB schemes plan 'productive finance' investments in 2025–26; tax incentives or state loss-sharing sought; DC Mansion House deal not extended to DB

Aon Plc reported that merely 2% of those polled from defined benefit-style schemes plan to allocate to UK productive finance during 2025–26, overall. The firm noted, notably in comparable surveys run in recent years, a waning appetite among pension schemes for illiquid assets, according to Aon. We expected this pattern to create a major obstacle to the UK government’s aims of boosting pension scheme investment in UK productive finance, the company added...

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NEWS
Care home fire safety defects: English TCC awards £6.4m and clarifies liability, remoteness and quantification of lost profits, emphasising the role of expert evidence (Toppan & Abbey v Simply)

Care homes, construction defects and commercial loss—guidance from the Technology and Construction Court (Toppan & Abbey v Simply) (1) Toppan Holdings Ltd, (2) Abbey Healthcare (Mill Hill) Limited v August 2008 LLP (formerly Simply Construct (UK) LLP) [2025] EWHC 1691 (TCC) What are the practical implications of this case? This decision will be of interest to the construction industry in a number of key respects: Contractors and designers will be expected to meet rigorous fire safety compliance standards The TCC has reaffirmed the established position that defects will be treated seriously, even when latent and uncovered only after practical completion. As emphasised in His Honour Judge Bowdery KC’s judgment, the court will take a dim view of parties who appear to ‘underestimate’ or ‘under‑appreciate’ the consequences of fire safety defects. The judge recorded on several occasions that the ‘appalling’ defects posed ‘a real risk to the health and safety of the elderly residents’, and that the presence of ‘potentially life‑threatening defects’ must...

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NEWS
Abbott and others v MoD: High Court test cases to set England and Wales guidance on causation and damages in military hearing loss claims, with wider application to civilian NIHL

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) has acknowledged it owed a duty of care to ex‑forces personnel who sustained hearing loss, yet it disputes the criteria for establishing that the loss arose during service and the quantum of damages. A so‑called matrix agreement between the parties means the MoD will not challenge this group of claims as being out of time. It has also agreed not to contest the levels of noise to which personnel were exposed. The ten‑week High Court trial, which started on 6 October 2025, will consider multiple test cases from different branches of the armed forces, covering a range of ages and varying severities of hearing impairment. Simon Ellis, partner and head of the specialist military department at Hugh James, represents around 5,000 ex‑servicemen and women. He said the result of the trial is expected to influence the compensation available to many thousands more. Military noise exposure is generally divided into two categories—weapon fire and steady‑state noise, the latter referring to continuous, long‑duration and often high‑intensity sounds...

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PRACTICE NOTES
UK corporation tax on foreign profits for UK-resident companies: treaty and unilateral credits, limits and unrelieved foreign tax, deduction option, permanent establishment attribution, foreign branch exemption, and loss utilisation

Many UK-resident companies are expected to operate solely within the UK, with their entire customer base and supplier network located here, so that all profits and gains arise from UK activity undertaken domestically within national borders. Nevertheless, this is not universal; for a sizeable proportion of UK companies, overall profits also comprise non-UK amounts earned from activities outside the UK...

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PRACTICE NOTES
Ireland: professional negligence-standard of care, Dunne and Morrissey test, concurrent liability, scope across medical, legal and construction professions, and extension of duty to third parties

This Practice Note reviews the duty of care applicable in professional negligence actions and the suitable legal yardstick for proving liability in professional negligence proceedings in Ireland. It sets out what amounts to professional negligence and the manner in which it is proved. It also addresses the various legal foundations for such claims. It then examines the care standards expected of healthcare practitioners, solicitors and barristers, and the construction profession, within the context of potential professional negligence claims against them. Lastly, it indicates when a professional’s duty of care may extend to third parties. What is professional negligence? Professional negligence is a civil action against a professional who owes a contractual and/or tortious duty to the plaintiff, and who breaches that duty by behaving in a manner no other reasonable member of that profession would adopt, thereby causing loss or damage to the plaintiff. How do you establish professional negligence?...

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PRACTICE NOTES
Fixed Protection 2016 for UK Registered Pension Schemes: post-LTA abolition entitlements, transitional rules, applications, cessation events, transfers, new memberships, death benefits, pension debits and auto-enrolment

THIS PRACTICE NOTE RELATES TO REGISTERED PENSION SCHEMES By means of Schedule 4 to the Finance Act 2016 (FA 2016), the government brought in an allowance protection regime designed to sit alongside the cut in the lifetime allowance from £1.25m to £1m on 6 April 2016. Termed fixed protection 2016 (FP 2016), it mirrors earlier fixed protection regimes respectively launched on 6 April 2012 (fixed protection 2012, or simply ‘fixed protection’) and 6 April 2014 (fixed protection 2014). This Practice Note focuses on FP 2016, which is the subject of this Practice Note. The original purpose of FP 2016 was to give transitional protection to people who, before 6 April 2014, had already accumulated pension savings above £1m, or who expected to do so on the basis that the lifetime allowance would be maintained at no less than £1.25m. Although the lifetime allowance was removed with effect from 6 April 2024, FP 2016 still delivers limited transitional safeguards regarding an individual’s rights to (i) the lump sum allowance, (ii)...

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PRECEDENTS
Precedent Employer Policy: Time Off for Jury Service, Witness Duties and Personal Court Appearances - Reporting, Pay, Expenses and Leave

1 Introduction The Company recognises that any employee called for jury service has a legal obligation to serve, and the Company, as the employer, is legally required to permit time off for this. You are expected to co-operate with the Company to ensure that undertaking jury service does not detrimentally affect the Company, its business, or its staff. This policy also applies to other circumstances where your presence at court is required. 2 Jury service Upon receiving a summons for jury service you must: inform the Company as soon as the summons is received; notify the Company of: the date you are required to attend; where known, the expected duration of the jury service; and the court at which you are required to report; provide a copy of: ...

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